outbound.trymurph.com — Funnel + Scaling Model

The paid VSL funnel, told honestly: gate-first, test-filtered, bookings from the GHL calendar (not the /thank-you page).
test-filtered PostHog + GHL live 2026-06-05

The real funnel today · clean people, last ~6 active days

 
Landed on /
443
paid + direct landers
13%
Clicked play → opened the form
58
87% never even open it
53%
Clicked submit
31
47% open then abandon
81%
Lead captured (passed validation)
25
19% fail the phone field
~100%
Watched the VSL
28
everyone who pays the gate reaches it
GHL
Booked a call
~5
real calendar appts, not /thank-you
The wall is the email gate, and it has three drops: 87% of landers never click to open the form · of those who do, 47% abandon the 4-field form · of those who submit, 19% are blocked by strict phone validation. Net gate opt-in = 5.6% (25 / 443). The video itself converts fine once people reach it. So the lever is the gate, not the VSL.
Booking number is GHL truth. PostHog booking_completed counted ~15 but most were anonymous / test / a 4×-repeat tester. The GHL calendar shows ~5 real discovery calls (Sejer/Lau/"Test" bookings excluded). Real cost per booked call ≈ $107–150, not the $53 a contaminated count implied.

Scaling model · the gate is the top lever

Variables

Defaults = live, test-filtered numbers. Drag any of them.

Spend
Ad spend / day$100
Cost per landing ($ / paid landing)$1.65
The gate (your bottleneck)
Form-open rate bottleneck13%
landing → clicks play & opens the form. Today 13%. An easier offer / less scary gate lifts this most.
Form-completion rate43%
opened → submitted. Today 43% (4 fields + strict phone). Email-only ≈ 70%+.
Sales
Lead → booked call20%
Show rate (booked → held)90%
Close rate (held → customer) · unproven for cold video15%
Economics
Price / month$660
Gross margin98%
Avg retention (months)12 mo
Customers / mo
0
0 booked calls/mo
New MRR / mo
$0
added every month at this spend
Cost / booked call
$0
paid spend / booked
CAC / customer
$0
spend ÷ customers
Payback
0
months of margin to recover CAC
LTV : CAC
0
LTV $0
Leads / day
0
$0 / lead
Gate opt-in
0%
0 landings/day
Closer load
1
0 calls / working day

Scaling ladder · at your current funnel assumptions

Spend / dayLeads/moBooked/moCustomers/moNew MRR/moCost/bookedCalls/workdayClosers
A closer holds ~5 discovery calls per working day; the Closers column is the capacity wall. The real ceiling on scale is sales headcount, not budget.

Fix the gate vs raise the budget

ScenarioOpen%Complete%Spend/dayBooked/moCustomers/moNew MRR/mo
Same money. Making the gate easier (email-only, phone optional) at flat $100/day beats raising spend at today's heavy gate — and it costs nothing in ad budget. Fix the gate first, then scale.
What's real here. Test traffic removed (Denmark hits + any @trymurph.com / anthemagency login + a 4×-repeat tester); a durable filter is now set on the PostHog project so this stays clean. The gate steps (open / submit) were reconstructed from autocapture because the gate fired no events — proper gate_open / gate_submit_attempt / gate_validation_fail events have now been added to the live page, so future data is first-class. Bookings come from the GHL calendar BUvlRO1ogjb8dPpmPCrj (real appointments), not PostHog booking_completed (which counted test + anonymous hits).
Model. landings = spend / cost-per-landing; leads = landings × open% × complete%; booked = leads × lead-to-booked; customers = booked × show × close; CAC = daily spend / daily customers; payback = CAC / (price × margin). Forward projection, 30 days/month. Sources: Meta act_1256401635987602, PostHog 359735 (host outbound.trymurph.com, test-filtered), GHL pipeline BUMqSErt9cDmjUYutKfd. No PII.